Big South Tournament

[winthropeaglefan]

Assuming what the Big South has tweeted is correct, here's the Big South tournament schedule:

Monday, Feb. 27 - First Round (at higher seeds)
GAME 1: No. 10 Radford at No. 7 VMI 7:00pm
GAME 2: No. 9 Gardner-Webb at No. 8 High Point, 7:30pm

Wednesday, Feb. 29 - Quarterfinals (at No. 1 seed - UNC Asheville)
GAME 3: Winner Game 1 (Radford or VMI) vs. No .2 Coastal Carolina, 12:00pm
GAME 4: No. 3 Campbell vs. No. 6 Winthrop, 2:00pm
GAME 5: Winner Game 2 (Gardner-Webb or High Point) vs. No. 1 UNC Asheville, 6:00pm
GAME 6: No. 4 Charleston Southern vs. No. 5 Liberty, 8:00pm

Thursday, March 1 - Semifinals (at No. 1 seed - UNC Asheville)
GAME 7: Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4, 6:00pm (TV: ESPNU)
GAME 8: Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6, 8:00pm (TV: ESPNU)

Saturday, March 3 - Championship (at highest remaining seed)
GAME 9: Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8, 12:00pm (TV: ESPN2)

[Bigsouthking]

This thing sets up good for Winthrop.. Get a struggling Campbell team and then CCU on neutral floor... Does Randy have any magic??

[shakeshoes]

Couldn't have asked for a better set-up. Now up to the guys to make it happen.

[winthropeaglefan]

Yeah..definitely agree. Even though WU didn't beat Campbell in either meeting, it didn't seem like they were overmatched by the Camels in any way..just didn't close out either game well. Neither team is playing well right now...could be an ugly game.

And yeah, I like the way WU matches up w/ Coastal if they happen to see each other in the semis. Though we didn't see Coastal w/ Greenwood in the lineup, so that changes things a little bit, but either way, going through Campbell and possibly Coastal to get to the finals seems like the best road given the circumstances.

So for those (like me) planning to attend the championship game if WU can get there...the only places it could possibly be at if WU is in it are Asheville, Charleston, or Lynchburg (though I guess there's a very slight chance WU would host if HPU or GWU somehow managed to make it to the finals...but that's less likely than WU getting there in the first place).

[winthropeaglefan]

And here's the official bracket from the conference:

http://www.bigsouthsports.com/pdf8/827980.pdf

[winthropeaglefan]

For those wanting to go to the game on Wednesday, you can get tickets here:

https://tkt.xosn.com/tickets/TicketHome ... _ID=280280

Not sure if WU has any tickets available aside from the ones available on the UNCA site I linked to.

[JoCoolWU]

This thing sets up good for Winthrop.. Get a struggling Campbell team and then CCU on neutral floor... Does Randy have any magic??

No. He doesn't. If Andre Jones doesn't get going this team will not win another game. It's simple as that. We don't play good consistent defense to overcome him only scoring 5 or 6 points.

We are who we are. This team won't change between today and Wednesday. Can only get potentially worse depending on the Matt Morgan injury news. Campbell will press us and force us into bad mistakes. That's how both those games turned out. We made some nice runs, but couldn't finish.(wonder how many times we said that this year)

[g-webb1994]

(though I guess there's a very slight chance WU would host if HPU or GWU somehow managed to make it to the finals...but that's less likely than WU getting there in the first place).

If Barbour keeps dropping 44 points on people it will happen. We've got to hold him to around 20 Monday night to have any shot.

[Bigsouthking]

My projections:

VMI over RU by a few.
Taking HP over GW in blowout.

CCU beats VMI for the 8th straight time
I'm taking Eagles over Camels, CU is bad right now.
UNCA some how ends HP hot streak
And the Flames continue riding high by beating the Bucs

Semi-finals

With Greenwood back I take CCU over Eagles
Toss up on next one, unca with home court gets the flames
(wouldn't shock me if LU wins though)

I take CCU over UNCA in championship

[markymark]

I think UNCA will win the whole thing.

In the game that matters to most of us on here, I think Campbell beats WU by 5-8 points. Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised to be wrong about this one. I'd love to predict WU winning the whole thing, but the last few weeks doesn't inspire much hope in that...

[DCMSGator]

Couldn't have asked for a better set-up. Now up to the guys to make it happen.

Which would you rather have...

1) Win the tournament and keep Peele another year or

2) Lose in the tournament, fire Peele, and start fresh?

[Bigsouthking]

win the tournament...keep peele.

[shakeshoes]

Obviously want to see them win. Would like to see the seniors rewarded with another ring, there's a lot more pieces to the team than just the coach.

[odie_a1]

Couldn't have asked for a better set-up. Now up to the guys to make it happen.

Which would you rather have...

1) Win the tournament and keep Peele another year or

2) Lose in the tournament, fire Peele, and start fresh?

That's an interesting question. If you apply just analytics, you gotta say at this point we need a new direction for the program, regardless of what happens over three games.

BUT as a true Winthrop fan , my heart tells me win the Big South, go the Big Dance, hopefully win the play-in and long-term consequences be damned. I could never pull for Winthrop to lose. If we're dealing in hypotheticals, then i'll take option 3, which is another conference title, NCAA berth and that turnaround leads to an overall improvement for the program and Coach Peele is able to begin a new era that's much more successful than his recent years on the job.

[PCWU.07]

Couldn't have asked for a better set-up. Now up to the guys to make it happen.

Which would you rather have...

1) Win the tournament and keep Peele another year or

2) Lose in the tournament, fire Peele, and start fresh?

That's an interesting question. If you apply just analytics, you gotta say at this point we need a new direction for the program, regardless of what happens over three games.

BUT as a true Winthrop fan , my heart tells me win the Big South, go the Big Dance, hopefully win the play-in and long-term consequences be damned. I could never pull for Winthrop to lose. If we're dealing in hypotheticals, then i'll take option 3, which is another conference title, NCAA berth and that turnaround leads to an overall improvement for the program and Coach Peele is able to begin a new era that's much more successful than his recent years on the job.

I can't outright cheer against us but I'm ready for a new coach, a new message and some new blood. if he's back next year i'm going to be very apathetic about this team after we lose our first 8 of ten games. The worst case scenario is that we win 3 straight and get another banner---hurts to say that. Peele is not taking this team anywhere in the future. He has forgotten more about basketball then I'll ever know and his supporters will chime in here and there after this season and defend him and call out anyone who poo-poo's him and that's fine we are all entitled to our opinions. I'm ready for coach to go. He's made a nice salary in his time here and will have opportunities to make his living in the game of basketball elsewhere. It's not personal, but fans and success are important and they help the bottom line...$$$

[winthropeaglefan]

Do we know for sure that if the team wins the tournament that Peele will be retained? And if they don't that he'll definitely be fired? If we don't, then we're just talking hypotheticals that just lead us into complete unknowns...

I mean, if they win the Big South tournament, then what? Is the team going to lose in the play-in game and Peele will be back next year and it will be just like this year all over again? Or do they win the play-in game and find a way to become the first ever 16 seed to beat a one seed? Does the team get killed by Kentucky, but then the returning players get inspired by their trip to the Dance and turn out to be the perfect players to play under Peele and win 20 games next year?

If they lose, does Peele get fired? Does the next guy pull a Gregg Marshall and comes in and wins 7 titles in 9 years? Does the next guy go 8-10 the next four years in conference play? Does the next guy get busted by the NCAA and lead the team to amultiple last place finishes in a row like what Radford's gone through?

So even if those are the only two options, that still leaves a lot of unknowns...so i'll go with the option that is the most fun short-term, because who really knows tne long-term implications of either outcome...so give me the championship...give me the excitement of the guys winning the championship game and cutting down the nets. Give me the option which allows these seniors another opportunity to make up for the Pine Bluff game. Give me the option of watching Selection Sunday and seeing Winthrop's name on the bracket instead of Asheville's or Coastal's. Give me the option that gives the young guys the the taste of success after a rough year. Give me that over watching the team have their season end quietly in Asheville.

[odie_a1]

Good points eaglefan.

Most loyal Winthrop fans I know will be hoping for a turnaround this week and another banner. What happens after this week, well, let's wait until the week is over before we worry too much about it.

[winthropeaglefan]

And what if the administration has already decided what to do, regardless of what happens this week...maybe they're going to let Peele no matter what...so why not get a tournament title in the process. Maybe they are going to let him coach out his contract no matter what...so why not get a tournament title in the process. If you guarantee me that losing in the conference tournament will bring the next Gregg Marshall to Rock Hill, then maybe i'd hope for the team to lose...but since nobody can guarantee that, i want to see them win.

[winthropeaglefan]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog ... verything/

Ken Pomeroy has put up his probabilities for each team winning the Big South tournament:

UNCA 47.6%
CCU 20.6%
CSU 14.8%
CU 10.1%
WU 2.2%
HPU 2.1%
VMI 1.1%
LU 0.9%
GWU 0.5%
RU 0.08%

So if you put any stock in his predictive statistics, then it is definitely a tall task for WU to win it all this week. But not impossible (UConn was at a 2% chance to win the Big East tournament last year).

[odie_a1]

WU 2.2%

So you're saying THERE'S A CHANCE!?!?!

[shakeshoes]

WU 2.2%

So you're saying THERE'S A CHANCE!?!?!

You beat me to it.

Honestly though, I don't think kenpom numbers account for momentum or latest trend, I would think our number is lower because at least from the newspaper quotes the team seems defeated.

At least we are meeting another trainwreck in the first game. Win that and get some confidence, and we know we can beat Coastal or VMI in the second game.

[g-webb1994]

Play-In:

VMI over RU
HPU over GWU

Quarters:

CCU over VMI
CU over WU
UNCA over HPU
LU over CSU

Semis:

CU over CCU
UNCA over LU

Final:

CU over UNCA

[UNCA Alum]

I don't think Peele will stick around in the off-season if his contract is not extended, conference championship or not. He knows what he has coming back next year. It's going to be a long season. And it would be impossible for him to recruit as a lameduck coach with 1 year remaining on his contract. The current players would have no incentive to impress him b/c they know a new guy is coming in. Why would anybody want to return to that situation? His stock as an assistant coach will be a lot higher this April than it will be April 2013. Won't make as much money next year, but his long term earnings are probably significantly higher if he bolts now.

So yall could realistically win the title and still have a new coach next year. Just gotta hope the AD doesn't respond to the tournament championship by extending his contract for 2-3 more years.

[UNCA Alum]

And I don't think we will win it this year. Easy to say in hindsight, but I felt a lot more comfortable heading into last year's tournament than I do this year. We just had a lot more momentum going into tournament week.

Going with Coastal. Experience, size, talent.

[WUBeachbum]

So yall could realistically win the title and still have a new coach next year.

Don't tease me, I couldn't dream of a better scenario.